November 08,2024

Millions of Americans Face Loss of Health Insurance Subsidies in 2026 Amid Political Uncertainty

The future of health insurance for millions of Americans hangs in the balance as critical subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) approach expiration in 2025. These subsidies, which were expanded in the 2021 American Rescue Plan, provide significant financial support for those buying ACA insurance, including many middle-class Americans who became newly eligible for assistance.

Following the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Republican wins in the Senate, the likelihood of subsidy renewal has dimmed. Trump and many GOP leaders have voiced opposition to extending the subsidies, according to Chris Meekins, a health policy analyst and former senior Health and Human Services official under Trump. With a potential Republican-led Congress, Meekins estimates the chance of renewal at less than 5%.

The subsidies, which were extended through 2025 by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, have had a notable impact: over 20 million Americans now have ACA coverage, with a significant enrollment boost in Southern states. However, if Congress does not extend the subsidies, the Congressional Budget Office warns that nearly 4 million Americans could lose coverage by 2026, and ACA enrollment could dip to 15.4 million by 2030.

While Congress may still consider extending subsidies during its current session, analysts like Cynthia Cox of KFF say it’s unlikely. Without an extension, premiums could see a steep rise—an average of over 75%, with some people potentially facing more than double the current rates.