February 2, 2024

New cancer cases to soar 77% by 2050: WHO

The World Health Organization's cancer agency, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), has issued a warning that the number of new cancer cases is projected to surpass 35 million in 2050. This estimate reflects a significant 77% increase compared to the approximately 20 million cases diagnosed in 2022. The IARC attributes this rise to factors such as tobacco, alcohol, obesity, and air pollution.

The global cancer burden is rapidly growing due to a combination of population aging, population growth, and changes in exposure to risk factors associated with socioeconomic development. Key drivers include tobacco, alcohol, and obesity, while air pollution continues to be a significant environmental risk factor.

The most developed countries are anticipated to experience the largest increases in the number of cancer cases, with an additional 4.8 million new cases predicted in 2050 compared to 2022. However, when considering percentages, countries with lower rankings on the Human Development Index (HDI) are expected to undergo the most substantial proportional increase, reaching 142%. Countries in the medium HDI range are forecasted to see a 99% increase.

Freddie Bray, the head of the cancer surveillance branch at IARC, emphasized that the impact of this surge in cancer cases will not be uniform across countries with different HDI levels. Countries with limited resources to manage the increased cancer burden are expected to bear the greatest challenges.